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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still